[Jiseon D-30] ① Sweeping the 與 or flipping it over at the last minute… The life-or-death election campaign begins in earnest

The 9th national simultaneous local election, a symbol of grassroots democracy, is one month away on the 3rd.

The reorganization of local powers that are actually responsible for the daily lives of the people, led by the heads of 16 metropolitan organizations across the country, has begun.

In particular, this election has serious political significance as it is the first national election under the Lee Jae-myung administration, which was launched in June last year.

In fact, as it is interpreted as an evaluation of the Lee Jae-myung administration, the election results are closely linked to the government’s driving force in state affairs.

Looking at political history, it is of utmost interest whether the Democratic Party of Korea will completely take over local power this time following its landslide victory in the 22nd general election (legislative power) and last year’s presidential election (administrative power).

With some even predicting that the Democratic Party will effectively become a 1.5 party due to its overwhelming lead in the National Assembly, the prediction is that if it takes over local power, the political advantage of the democratic and progressive camp will be further solidified.

On the contrary, from the perspective of the conservative opposition, including the People Power Party, the hot topic is whether it will be possible to escape the crisis of extinction and create a foundation for reconstruction.

The fact that ‘mini general election-level’ by-elections for National Assembly members are being held in 14 locations across the country simultaneously with local elections is also a factor in which the ruling and opposition parties are making a life-or-death bet on this election.

Ahead of the election, the Democratic Party is accelerating the promotion of the theory of stability in state affairs and the theory of a worker based on President Lee Jae-myung’s high approval rating.

At the same time, it is digging into public sentiment with its self-proclaimed goal of ‘complete liquidation of the civil war.’ The point is that the People Power Party local government, which was dominant during the 8th local election held immediately after the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol government in 2022, must be judged.

On the other hand, the People Power Party is appealing for people to vote for the government and ruling party’s monopoly of checks and balances, saying that the Democratic Party’s various legislative and policy drives should be brought to the judgment of the public.

However, due to the early stages of the administration’s launch and the strong right-wing actions of Representative Jang Dong-hyuk, the judgment theory, which is the core of the opposition party’s strategy, does not seem to be working.

In fact, according to a survey released by Gallup Korea on the 1st, 46% of respondents expected ‘many ruling party candidates to be elected’, compared to 30% who expected ‘many opposition party candidates to be elected’, and the gap is also widening compared to before.

Given that President Lee maintains an approval rating in the low 60% range, some within the ruling party are even saying that they can win the election by a landslide just by talking about President Lee.

In the same context, some in the Democratic Party also have expectations of a ’15 to 1′ victory, sweeping all regions except Gyeongbuk.

However, many analyzes say that it is difficult to predict the actual results yet, given that the brackets for all 16 metropolitan organization head candidates were completed the day before, and the election campaign begins in earnest from now on.

First of all, the variable is that conservative forces seem to be gathering around traditional conservative strongholds such as Daegu, Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK).

In Daegu, where there was once a sense of crisis that the People Power Party was giving up even its own home, People Power Party candidate Choo Kyung-ho appears to be in a close race recently with Democratic Party candidate Kim Bu-gyeom.

In the case of Busan, the gap between Democratic Party candidate Jeon Jae-soo and People Power Party candidate Park Hyeong-jun, who has the upper hand, has narrowed compared to before.

In Seoul, the biggest battleground for local elections, the rivalry between the ruling and opposition parties is becoming increasingly fierce.

Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-oh, a former mayor of Seongdong-gu, is pushing for Oh Se-hoon’s judgment of city administration and is pushing Candidate Oh as ‘Season 2 of Yoon Seok-yeol’.

People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon is simultaneously attacking the government and candidate Chung by linking the real estate issue, saying that candidate Chung is ‘former mayor Park Won-soon season 2’.

The People Power Party is also working together to highlight real estate issues, claiming that if the Democratic Party wins the local elections, a ‘real estate tax bomb’ will become a reality.

However, as the stock market continues to boom, with the KOSPI approaching 7,000 points, the real estate issue does not appear to have become a full-blown election issue yet.

However, the general observation of experts is that along with changes in stock prices, real estate issues can become volatile election issues in Seoul and other metropolitan areas at any time.

In addition, the fact that People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk was criticized by the ruling party for following the so-called ‘Yoon Again’ line, and the Democratic Party’s push for the so-called special prosecution bill on fabricated indictments are also considered variables in the final stages of the election.

Both are issues with great appeal within the progressive and conservative camps, and they can also influence the votes of the vacillating class, which accounts for nearly 30% nationwide.

In addition, the election solidarity and unification of candidates within the camp in Ulsan, Sejong, Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi-do, and Bukgap in Busan are also attracting attention as they can change the outcome of the election.

Report cards such as local elections are directly related to the future of the ruling and opposition party leaders and political heavyweights.

If the Democratic Party wins a landslide victory, a green light may turn on for Representative Chung Cheong-rae’s path to a second term at the August convention. On the other hand, there is a possibility that People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk will be pushed into responsibility for the election loss.

Conversely, if the People Power Party does well, Representative Jang is expected to take steps to solidify his leadership again, and Representative Chung’s plans for a second term may also face some setbacks.

At the same time, interest is also focused on whether ruling and opposition party leaders who are running in the by-elections, such as Cho Kuk (Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province), former representative of the People’s Power Party Han Dong-hoon (Buk-gap, Busan), former Democratic Party representative Song Young-gil (Yeonsugap, Incheon), and former Gangwon Governor Lee Kwang-jae (Hanam-gap, Gyeonggi) will enter the National Assembly.

The Gallup Korea poll cited in the article was conducted on 1,002 voters aged 18 or older across the country from the 28th to the 30th of last month. The sampling error is ±3.1%p at the 95% confidence level, the contact rate is 39.2%, and the response rate is 13.3%.

For more information, please refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website.